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Christmas Eve

Isaiah 9
2 The people who walked in darkness have seen a great light; those who lived in a land of deep darkness on them light has shined.

Luke 2
In that region there were shepherds living in the fields, keeping watch over their flock by night. Then an angel of the Lord stood before them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were terrified. But the angel said to them, "Do not be afraid; for see--I am bringing you good news of great joy for all the people: to you is born this day in the city of David a Savior, who is the Messiah, the Lord.


Christmas poll: hands up if you like surprizes. Or if you don’t. My hunch is that most of us would support the pleasant surprizes and avoid the unpleasant ones. A surprize party is nice, a leaky roof is not.

Looking beyond these surprizingly pervious walls there are surprizing events on a much large scale. The end of the Cold War, 9-11, even the emergence of the internet are ready examples. For surprizes such as these, social scientists coined the phrase Black Swan Event.

The commonly held European belief was that all swans were white. Commonly held, of course, until Europeans made their way to Australia, and discovered that down-under, swans are black. The term, then, applies to any event that shatters normal expectations and brings about dramatic change.

Back to our examples, the fall of the Berlin Wall illustrates the metaphor well: it happened quite suddenly and it forced us to rethink our reality. There were clearly steps that led to the events of November 9, 1989, but for most, it was something we didn’t expect to see on our lifetime. It was a Black Swan Event.

Nassim Taleb, who wrote the book on this, goes further. He argues that our brains are not wired to predict the unexpected. We simply don’t see it coming. We are wired to look for patterns, to make sense of things based on what we already know. When the unexpected happens, we’re not ready for it because we’ve been looking at what’s consistent with what’s gone before.

Imagine a Black Swan Christmas. You’re a shepherd and you’re out in the field minding your own business:

In that region there were shepherds living in the fields, keeping watch over their flock by night. Then an angel of the Lord stood before them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were terrified. But the angel said to them, "Do not be afraid; for see--I am bringing you good news of great joy for all the people: to you is born this day in the city of David a Savior, who is the Messiah, the Lord.

The key phrase in the reading is “they were terrified.” And the angel, of course, can see it on their faces. “Be not afraid,” she says, but it was too late. Angel announcements, it seems, are scary. What follows, the “good news of great joy” seems equally Black Swan in nature. This was the birthday of a saviour.

***

Each Advent we sing “Come thou long expected Jesus,” casting some doubt that this was a Black Swan Event at all. Yesterday we heard readings from Isaiah and Micah, describing in detail the future hope of a people. In Advent we hear of the stump of Jesse and the line of David and we imagine that this was not news, or at least it was something that fit with the expectation of the people.

What we miss, what fails to surprize in the midst of the familiar, is the idea that a saviour is born. This then, is the true Back Swan Event. God chose to enter the world in a baby, in the most surprizing way possible. Expectations were met, then shattered, as the long expressed hope came in the most unlikely form. The name Jesus means “salvation,” but salvation in the mind of most was salvation akin to Moses, not Mary, baby and manger.

There is something else about the Black Swan worth mentioning, and that is the very human tendency to explain away the event, to try to make it fit into those same patterns that we clearly love so much. Back in Berlin, the so-called smart people said they could see it coming: that there were internal weaknesses apparent and changes for everyone to see. Ah, the Monday morning quarterback.

Another example is the moon landing. There are many, seemingly sane people who believe it was an elaborate hoax. As a matter of fact, one year after the first moon landing, thirty percent of Americans surveyed indicated that they were suspicious that NASA actually made it to the moon. Could be something in the water. Whatever it is, it is clear that some people have difficulty accepting change and the way it can alter their world.

Cue the skeptics. I watched a rather tedious hour of television a week or so ago, with Tom Harpur earnestly explaining that Jesus did not exist and that the whole thing is based on an Egyptian demigod named Horus. Now, I have nothing against Horus or Tom Harpur, but I sense some of the same Black Swan reluctance that has seemingly sane people question the moon shots. The incarnation, God’s decision to enter the world through Jesus, seems so incredible, that might be easier to explain it away.

Incarnation, you see, comes with consequences. And maybe they hit a little too close to home. We know God through Jesus, and we know God’s desire for our lives. We need to love our neighbours and pray for our enemies. We need to care for the sick and the oppressed, we need to make God the centre of our lives: with all our heart and mind and soul. On top of this, we need to accept that we fall short of these and seek God’s forgiveness. No wonder Black Swans are appearing everywhere!

There are more than a few of us who don’t really like surprizes. We enjoy the comfort of the familiar. We like things settled and predictable. For some of us, “no news is good news.”

But not tonight. Tonight we hear “good news of great joy.” Tonight, “the people who walked in darkness have seen a great light; those who lived in a land of deep darkness on them light has shined.” Arise, my friends, your light has come. A miracle is happening tonight, a baby is born in Bethlehem.

posted by michael jacob kooiman @ 9:06 AM